“Nearly 5 million able-bodied Medicaid recipients ‘merely select to not work’ and ‘spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.’”
Scott Jennings on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip” on July 1
Republicans defended the GOP megabill’s Medicaid modifications as concentrating on a bunch of individuals they consider shouldn’t qualify: individuals who can work however as an alternative select to remain house and chill.
A number of Republican politicians and pundits, together with CNN senior political commentator Scott Jennings, pegged that group’s measurement at about 5 million individuals.
“There are like virtually 5 million able-bodied individuals on Medicaid who merely select to not work,” Jennings mentioned July 1 on “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip.” “They spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv. And in the event you can’t get off grandma’s sofa and work, I don’t need to pay in your welfare.”
Facilities for Medicare & Medicaid Companies Administrator Mehmet Oz picked up on a few of these factors throughout a July 14 look on Fox Information. “When this system was created 60 years in the past, it by no means dawned on anybody that you’d take able-bodied people who may work and put them on Medicaid. Immediately the common able-bodied individual on Medicaid who doesn’t work, they watch 6.1 hours of tv or simply hang around,” Oz mentioned.
Medicaid is a federal-state medical health insurance program that covers medical take care of lower-income individuals.
Jennings cited two items of information: an estimate of what number of fewer individuals would have protection due to the work requirement and an evaluation of how nonworking Medicaid recipients spend their time. However he made assumptions that the information doesn’t help.
Jennings Misrepresents CBO Estimate
The 4.8 million determine stems from a June 24 Congressional Funds Workplace evaluation of a preliminary Home model of the huge tax and spending bundle. The workplace, Congress’ nonpartisan analysis arm, projected that provisions of the invoice would trigger 7.8 million fewer individuals to have well being protection by 2034. They would come with 4.8 million individuals beforehand eligible for Medicaid described as “able-bodied” adults 19 to 64 years previous who don’t have any dependents and who “don’t meet the group engagement requirement” of doing “work-related actions” at the very least 80 hours a month.
Aside from working, doing group service and attending faculty additionally fulfill the group engagement requirement.
Jennings paired that statistic with a separate evaluation of how nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients with out dependent kids spend their time.
However the CBO estimate was a projection — it doesn’t characterize the present variety of nondisabled Medicaid recipients, nor does it say 4.8 million individuals on this group “select to not work.” The determine represented what number of fewer individuals would have protection due to the invoice’s group engagement requirement.
“The problem with Jennings’ feedback — they usually’ve been echoed elsewhere by elected Republicans — is that CBO by no means mentioned that 4.8 million individuals have been out of compliance with the proposed work necessities; they mentioned that 4.8 million individuals would lose protection due to the work necessities,” mentioned Adrianna McIntyre, an assistant professor of well being coverage and politics on the Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being.
Among the many Medicaid growth inhabitants, the regulation requires most adults with out dependent kids and oldsters of youngsters older than 13 to work or take part in different qualifying actions 80 hours each month. States might want to confirm that candidates met the work requirement for one to a few months earlier than they utilized. States can even be required to confirm that current enrollees met the work requirement for at the very least a month between eligibility determinations, which can be required at the very least twice a yr.
Analysis into Medicaid work necessities imposed on the state stage has proven that individuals discovered it tough to satisfy them and submit documentation, contributing to protection losses.
In Arkansas, which added a piece requirement to Medicaid in 2018, a examine primarily based on practically 6,000 respondents discovered that about 95% of the goal inhabitants have been already working or certified for an exemption, however a 3rd of them didn’t hear in regards to the work necessities. In consequence, practically 17,000 Medicaid recipients topic to work necessities misplaced protection.
KFF discovered that adults ages 50 to 64 are extra susceptible to dropping Medicaid protection due to the brand new work necessities. Greater than 1 in 10 in that age group mentioned they’d retired, and amongst them, 28% reported being disabled, mentioned KFF, a well being info nonprofit that features KFF Well being Information.
Benjamin Sommers, a well being care economics professor on the Harvard Chan faculty, mentioned lots of the 4.8 million “able-bodied” individuals within the CBO estimate “will truly be engaged within the actions they’re speculated to be doing, and lose protection as a result of they aren’t in a position to navigate the reporting necessities with the state and lose protection from purple tape.”
When Recipients Don’t Work, It’s Not often From Lack of Curiosity
There isn’t a common definition for “able-bodied”; incapacity may be assessed in numerous methods. However different research provide a lot smaller estimates than 4.8 million Medicaid recipients with out dependents who can work however select to not.
Thousands and thousands of working-age, nondisabled adults joined the Medicaid ranks in states that expanded eligibility beneath the Inexpensive Care Act. There have been about 34 million working-age nondisabled Medicaid enrollees in 2024, based on the CBO, 15 million of whom enrolled by way of the ACA.
A KFF evaluation discovered a smaller determine of 26 million Medicaid-covered adults, ages 19 to 64, who don’t obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings, Social Safety Incapacity Insurance coverage, or Medicare advantages.
Amongst this group, KFF estimated, 64% have been working both full time or half time. The explanations the remainder weren’t working included caregiving (12%); sickness or incapacity (10%); retirement, lack of ability to search out work, or different purpose (8%); and college attendance (7%).
Few individuals cited lack of curiosity in working as the explanation for his or her unemployment. An City Institute examine discovered 2% of Medicaid growth enrollees with out dependents who neither labored nor attended faculty — or 300,000 individuals out of a projected 15 million topic to work necessities — cited an absence of curiosity in working as the explanation they have been unemployed.
This was in keeping with the Brookings Establishment’s June 5 evaluation that discovered that, of 4.3 million grownup enrollees who labored fewer than 80 hours a month and didn’t have any exercise limitations or sicknesses, about 300,000 reported that they “didn’t work as a result of they didn’t need to.”
Principally Ladies, Principally With a Excessive College Diploma or Much less
When Republicans have described nondisabled grownup Medicaid recipients, they’ve usually portrayed them as males of their 30s “enjoying video video games” of their dad and mom’ basement or who “smoke weed all day.” Analysis paints a unique image.
Jane Tavares and Marc Cohen, of the College of Massachusetts-Boston Gerontology Division, researched Medicaid recipients who should not disabled or working, don’t have any dependent kids beneath 18, and should not in class. They cited 2023 census information from the American Neighborhood Survey.
They discovered:
- The common age of this inhabitants is 41, and 26% are older than 50.
- Nearly 80% are feminine.
- Most, 80%, have a highschool schooling or much less.
- Their median particular person earnings is $0, and their median family earnings is $44,800.
- About 56% labored previously 5 years, and 23% labored within the prior yr. About 30% are trying or accessible for work.
“They aren’t wholesome younger adults simply hanging out,” the authors, together with well being regulation specialists Sara Rosenbaum and Alison Barkoff, wrote April 30.
“It’s clear primarily based on their prior work historical past and household measurement/earnings that they’re exceptionally poor and have seemingly left the workforce to take care of grownup kids or older adults,” Tavares advised PolitiFact. “Even when these people may work, they’d have only a few job alternatives and it could come at the price of the individuals they’re offering take care of.”
AEI Research Not Definitively Linked to CBO Estimate
On the social platform X, Jennings posted the CBO letter and a Might 29 evaluation by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative suppose tank, about “how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with out kids spend their time.” PolitiFact contacted CNN to succeed in Jennings however didn’t obtain a reply.
The creator of that examine, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow Kevin Corinth, analyzed survey information and located that Medicaid recipients who don’t report working spend on common 6.1 hours a day “on all socializing, enjoyable and leisure actions (together with tv and video video games).”
Nevertheless it’s unsure whether or not the individuals within the survey inhabitants he analyzed overlap with the individuals included within the CBO evaluation, mentioned Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured.
Corinth advised PolitiFact “it’s tough to say” how the inhabitants he analyzed differs from the CBO’s. Tavares, Cohen, Rosenbaum, and Barkoff mentioned Corinth’s dataset outlined incapacity narrowly, resulting in a “critical underestimation of incapacity” among the many inhabitants of Medicaid recipients he seemed into. It centered on Medicaid recipients who obtain Supplemental Safety Earnings or have a well being situation that forestalls them from working. The researchers mentioned this strategy is simply too slim as a result of the SSI program accounts for under these “most deeply impoverished adults with extreme disabilities.”
The group gave a hypothetical instance of a 54-year-old lady with a critical coronary heart situation who can work only some hours every week. She might not be thought-about disabled beneath the SSI program, however she could also be restricted within the work she will do and might have time to relaxation.
“Utilizing her ‘leisure time’ to justify a piece requirement grossly misrepresents her actuality,” the group wrote.
Corinth’s evaluation additionally reveals that nonworking Medicaid recipients spend much less time socializing, enjoyable, or engaged in leisure actions than nonworking individuals who aren’t coated by Medicaid. Nonworking Medicaid recipients additionally spend extra time searching for work and doing home tasks and errands, it discovered.
Our Ruling
Jennings mentioned virtually 5 million nondisabled Medicaid recipients “merely select to not work” and “spend six hours a day socializing and watching tv.”
The 5 million determine stems from a CBO projection that 4.8 million individuals would go with out protection by 2034 because of not fulfilling the group engagement necessities. It’s not descriptive of present enrollees and doesn’t specify that these individuals select to not work.
Jennings cited an American Enterprise Institute evaluation on how nondisabled Medicaid recipients with no dependents spend their time, however it’s unsure if the inhabitants in that evaluation overlaps with that within the CBO estimate.
Present snapshots of the inhabitants Jennings described produce a smaller quantity. A survey by the City Institute discovered that 2% of Medicaid growth enrollees with out dependents who have been neither working nor attending faculty — about 300,000 individuals — cited an absence of curiosity in working. Different analysis has discovered causes this group doesn’t work embrace caregiving, sickness or incapacity, retirement, and lack of ability to search out work.
Research of nonworking Medicaid recipients have discovered the bulk are ladies and have a highschool schooling or much less. Their common age is 41, and greater than half have a piece historical past previously 5 years.
We charge Jennings’ assertion False.
Our Sources
Electronic mail interview, Jane Tavares, College of Massachusetts-Boston adjunct teacher in gerontology, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Marc Cohen, College of Massachusetts-Boston professor of gerontology, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Sara Rosenbaum, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being professor emerita of well being regulation and coverage, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Alison Barkoff, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being affiliate professor of well being regulation and coverage, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Edwin Park, Georgetown College McCourt College of Public Coverage Heart for Kids and Households analysis professor, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Benjamin Sommers, Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being professor of well being care economics, July 2, 2025
Cellphone interview, Jennifer Tolbert, deputy director of KFF’s Program on Medicaid and the Uninsured, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Adrianna McIntyre, Harvard T.H. Chan College of Public Well being assistant professor of well being coverage and politics, July 2, 2025
Cellphone interview, Michael Karpman, City Institute Well being Coverage Division principal analysis affiliate, July 3, 2025
Electronic mail change, Congressional Funds Workplace spokesperson, July 2, 2025
Electronic mail interview, Kevin Corinth, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, July 3, 2025
X submit by Fast Response 47, June 30, 2025
Transcript of “CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip,” July 1, 2025
Congressional Funds Workplace, “Re: Data Regarding Medicaid-Associated Provisions in Title IV of H.R. 1,” June 24, 2025
Benjamin D. Sommers, M.D., Ph.D., Anna L. Goldman, M.D., M.P.A., M.P.H., Robert J. Blendon, Sc.D., E. John Orav, Ph.D., and Arnold M. Epstein, M.D., “Medicaid Work Necessities — Outcomes From the First 12 months in Arkansas,” June 19, 2019
Congressional Funds Workplace, Baseline Projections, Medicaid, June 2024
KFF, “Understanding the Intersection of Medicaid and Work: An Replace,” Might 30, 2025
City Institute, “Many Working Folks Would Be Shut Out of Medicaid Underneath Proposed Work Necessities,” June 11, 2025
Wisconsin Watch, “Have Thousands and thousands of Nondisabled, Working-Age Adults Been Added to Medicaid?” July 2, 2025
CBS Information, “Too Sick To Work, Some People Fear Trump’s Invoice Will Strip Their Well being Insurance coverage,” June 26, 2025
Brookings Establishment, “Any Manner You Take a look at It You Lose: Medicaid Work Necessities Will Both Fall Wanting Anticipating Financial savings or Hurt Weak Beneficiaries,” June 5, 2025
X submit by Scott Jennings, July 2, 2025
American Enterprise Institute, “How Nondisabled Medicaid Recipients With out Kids Spend Their Time,” Might 29, 2025
Congressional Funds Workplace, “Estimated Budgetary Results of an Modification within the Nature of a Substitute to H.R. 1, the One Large Lovely Invoice Act, Relative to CBO’s January 2025 Baseline,” June 29, 2025
Geiger Gibson Program in Neighborhood Well being, George Washington College Milken Institute College of Public Well being, “The Elementary Flaw in ‘How Employees Spend Their Time’,” June 4, 2025
X submit by Aaron Rupar, July 1, 2025
X submit by Congressman Brandon Gill, July 2, 2025
LeadingAge LTSS Heart @UMass Boston, “Profile of Medicaid Inhabitants Age 18-64, Working and Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries, and ‘In a position-Bodied’ Non-Working Medicaid Beneficiaries,” Might 2025
The Milbank Quarterly, “Who’s Affected by Medicaid Work Necessities? It’s Not Who You Assume,” April 30, 2025
KFF, “Completely different Knowledge Supply, however Similar Outcomes: Most Adults Topic to Medicaid Work Necessities Are Working or Face Limitations to Work,” June 25, 2025
