Bonds had a strong begin to 2025, with most high-quality fastened revenue sectors up low- to mid-single digits via the primary half of the 12 months. Whereas shares skilled a roller-coaster journey powered by coverage uncertainty, fastened revenue typically held up properly regardless of the broader market turbulence. Will it’s the identical story within the second half? Let’s take a better look.
A Flock to Security
Traditionally, investment-grade bonds have benefited in instances of uncertainty, as buyers usually flock to the protection of high-quality fastened revenue when dangers rise. We definitely noticed that play out earlier this 12 months when shares bought off and bonds rallied. The chart beneath highlights year-to-date and one-year returns for a handful of main sectors inside fastened revenue.
Yr-to-Date and 1-Yr Whole Returns
| Yr-to-Date | 1 Yr | |
| Bloomberg U.S. Combination Bond Index | 2.35% | 4.61% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Company Bond Index | 2.40% | 5.13% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Company Excessive Yield Index | 3.10% | 9.26% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index | -1.02% | 0.91% |
| Bloomberg Municipal Excessive Yield Bond Index | 2.47% | 5.54% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Treasury 1-5 Yr Index | 3.44% | 6.45% |
Supply: Bloomberg, as of 6/10/2025. All indices are unmanaged, and buyers can not truly make investments instantly into an index. Not like investments, indices don’t incur administration charges, fees, or bills. Previous efficiency doesn’t assure future outcomes.
Trying ahead to the second half of the 12 months, the most probably final result for fastened revenue buyers is sustained strong positive aspects. Nonetheless, there are dangers that must be acknowledged and monitored, together with the menace to the bond rally posed by rising issues in regards to the nation’s deficit and long-term debt plans.
Shifting Focus to Lengthy-Time period Yields
When will the Fed begin slicing charges? Coming into the 12 months, that was one of many main questions for the bond market. We entered the 12 months with merchants pricing between one and two rate of interest cuts in 2025, with the primary reduce anticipated in Might because of an anticipated financial slowdown. However this price reduce by no means materialized. The financial information confirmed the job market remained impressively resilient via the beginning of the 12 months, whereas inflation remained stubbornly excessive. Fed members, together with Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated the central financial institution is in no rush to regulate rates of interest and can stay data-dependent when setting charges at future conferences.
Given the shortage of Fed exercise to start out the 12 months and muted expectations for additional price cuts in 2025, investor focus has shifted towards the longer finish of the yield curve. This shift turned particularly obvious after Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. financial system in Might amid the continuing congressional budgeting discussions which can be set to broaden the dimensions of the deficit and nationwide debt.
Lengthy-term Treasury yields fell all through the primary quarter of the 12 months. Within the second quarter, they rose notably, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting a current excessive of almost 5.10 % in late Might. Whereas long-term yields have pulled again modestly from current highs, they nonetheless sit properly above the degrees seen all through 2024, indicating continued investor concern. Upwards strain on long-term yields might current a headwind for fastened revenue buyers within the second half of the 12 months, particularly as congressional negotiations over the finances and tax insurance policies proceed.
A Have a look at Company and Municipal Bonds
Whereas Treasury yields attracted many of the consideration within the first half of the 12 months, there are compelling alternatives within the company and municipal bond markets for buyers prepared to tackle credit score danger in alternate for heightened yields.
Treasury, municipal, and company bond yields are all at the moment above their respective 10-year median values (see chart beneath). However tax-adjusted municipal bonds and investment-grade company bonds could present extra potential yield in comparison with Treasuries.
Supply: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Credit score Analysis, J.P. Morgan Asset Administration. Indices used are Bloomberg aside from ABS, rising market debt and leveraged loans: ABS: J.P. Morgan ABS Index; CMBS: Bloomberg Funding Grade CMBS Index; EMD (USD): J.P. Morgan EMIGLOBAL Diversified Index; EMD (LCL): J.P. Morgan GBI-EM World Diversified Index; EM Corp.: J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified; Leveraged Loans: JPM Leveraged Mortgage Index; Euro IG: Bloomberg Euro Combination Company Index; Euro HY: Bloomberg Pan-European Excessive Yield Index. Yield-to-worst is the bottom attainable yield that may be acquired on a bond other than the corporate defaulting and considers components like name provisions, prepayments and different options which will have an effect on the bonds’ money flows. *All sectors proven are yield-to-worst aside from Municipals, which is predicated on the tax-equivalent yield-to-worst assuming a top-income tax bracket price of 37% plus a Medicare tax price of three.8%. Information to the Markets – U.S. Information are as of Might 30, 2025.
Whereas investment-grade company bonds have moved according to the broader market up to now this 12 months, investment-grade municipal bond returns lagged their friends within the first half. This underperformance was largely because of a mix of excessive issuance and uneven funding flows, together with issues about potential tax coverage modifications that would strip some municipal issuers of their tax-exempt standing. Trying ahead, these headwinds are anticipated to show into tailwinds for buyers, as municipal bond valuations seem comparatively enticing as a result of current underperformance.
Bonds Appearing Like Bonds
Finally, the primary half of the 12 months was largely constructive for fastened revenue buyers. Regardless of the ups and downs for shares, bonds held up comparatively properly as compared. Given the coverage volatility to start out the 12 months, it’s encouraging to see bonds appearing like bonds in instances of market uncertainty. We should always count on to see that conduct proceed within the second half.
That’s to not say there aren’t any dangers to this outlook. Political uncertainty stays essentially the most urgent challenge for buyers. Whereas we’ve seen progress in reducing the temperature of the continuing finances and commerce negotiations, additional surprises or disruptions might rattle markets. Mounted revenue buyers might also face financial headwinds, particularly if there’s a sustained rise in inflationary strain.
Whereas high-quality bonds have traditionally carried out properly in instances of uncertainty, current historical past has proven intervals the place bonds and shares skilled declines on the similar time. Most lately, in 2022, a surge in inflation and rates of interest led to double-digit losses for each shares and bonds. Whereas it’s not anticipated right now, if we do see a significant rise in inflation, it might negatively impression markets, particularly if it prevents the Fed from reducing charges later within the 12 months.
Cautious Optimism Forward
All that being mentioned, fastened revenue buyers must be cautiously optimistic as we enter the second half of the 12 months. Valuations are strong, yields are compelling, and bonds are appearing like bonds once more. These components ought to contribute to a strong remainder of the 12 months for buyers.
Bonds are topic to availability and market circumstances; some have name options which will have an effect on revenue. Bond costs and yields are inversely associated: when the worth goes up, the yield goes down, and vice versa. Market danger is a consideration if bought or redeemed previous to maturity.
